Train of consciousness on China

Just a few random thoughts about China. Things that I don't hear mentioned often enough. In no particular order because I have a headache, toothache and am tired. Hey, it's my blog, I can blather if I want.

China in relation to the world is so complex now that no one can join the dots -- don't believe anyone who says they can. Sinology, like astrology, dream interpretation and spellings of the word 'felafel', has at least twenty-three varieties, all of them incorrect.

OK, everyone knows China's economy is growing at around 8 or 9%. Far fewer people seem to know that its military expenditure is growing at nearly 15% and that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is 2.8 million strong. Or that the PLA (through COSCO), had it not been for citizen outrage, very nearly was sold by the US Government the largest port on the west coast of the USA (Long Beach), and today largelycontrols the Panama Canal. (More and more on this.)

China's century? Or India's?
Everyone talks about this being China's century. Maybe. But it might be India's century and only China's half century. Because of China's one child policy, India -- which is growing economically much like China is (only with different industries) -- will have more young workers and China will have more old folks in about two generations from now. I have no crystal ball on how this will pan out, but I factor it into all my musings on the future. Another point: both India and China will hit the Peak Oil wall sooner rather than later. Of course, this is Foreign Relations 101 stuff, but if it is not considered in the light of Leninist thought, it can't be interpreted clearly.

China is not an ex-Communist state
Everyone -- especially business people, journalists and politicians -- blabs on about China being an ex-Communist country. This is a dangerous position to take, and demonstrably a crock. Sure, people admit that it is still authoritarian, but they say it is capitalist. The term 'Marxism-Leninism' does not occur in one conversation out of a thousand when China is being discussed.

Temporary capitalism
The power elite of China has not abandoned Marxism-Leninism. Marx-Lenin-Mao's places in the pantheon are secure. The temporary introduction of capitalist economic models is pure Lenin (vide his NEP -- New Economic Policy -- of 1921). Despite the complexity of the current situation, I still put my money on this being a dialectical retreat, especially when we consider that not all provinces are taking part in this new epoch. Certainly 2006 is not 1921 and I'm not trying to oversimplify this, but wouldn't it be lovely if one commentator in 100 actually knew something about the ideological underpinnings of China? It seems to be off the radar. Not at this Almanac it ain't!

Last random thought. The neocons are as divided and confused on China as anyone. There is no consensus on whether to contain, integrate, oppose or sell the hangman the rope to hang them (pardon the ancient allusion). Watch this space for more; I'm going to grab a nap.

Tagged: china, military, army, india, neocons, marxism-leninism, communism, progressive, war, peace