Friday, September 17, 2004

*Ø* Iraq: what future now?

U.S. Intelligence Shows Pessimism on Iraq's Future

September 16, New York Times:

"WASHINGTON, -- A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday.

"The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.

"'There's a significant amount of pessimism,' said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages. The officials declined to discuss the key judgments - concise, carefully written statements of intelligence analysts' conclusions - included in the document.

"The intelligence estimate, the first on Iraq since October 2002, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and was approved by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under John E. McLaughlin, the acting director of central intelligence. Such estimates can be requested by the White House or Congress, but this one was initiated by the intelligence council under George J. Tenet, who stepped down as director of central intelligence on July 9, the government officials said.

"As described by the officials, the pessimistic tone of the new estimate stands in contrast to recent statements by Bush administration officials, including comments on Wednesday by Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, who asserted that progress was being made."

Continue at Information Clearing House

The "war is lost"

By Sidney Blumenthal, September 16, Salon.com:

Military experts say they see no exit from the Iraq debacle -- and that the war is helping al-Qaida.

"'Bring them on!' President Bush challenged the early Iraqi insurgency in July of last year. Since then 812 American soldiers have been killed and 6,290 wounded, according to the Pentagon. Almost every day in campaign speeches, Bush speaks with bravado about how we are 'winning' in Iraq. 'Our strategy is succeeding,' he boasted to the National Guard convention on Tuesday.

"But according to the U.S. military's leading strategists and prominent retired generals, Bush's war is already lost ..." [my emphasis]

Full text at Information Clearing House

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