USA: The Great Disappointment. The predicted day that Christ would come again to make the Last Judgment, according to William Miller, a Baptist preacher, respectable farmer and keen amateur student of scripture living in northern New York State, and founder of Seventh Day Adventism.
After Miller shared his prophetic interpretations at a local church in 1831, his fame spread widely in a movement known as ‘the great second advent awakening’. In 1838 he published Evidence From Scripture and History of the Second Coming of Christ, About the Year 1843. At first, Miller claimed to have inside knowledge that Jesus Christ's second advent on earth would occur between March 21, 1843, and March 21, 1844.
Many who believed him sold all their possessions, while others hid away and spent their time preparing for Christ's coming. When Jesus and the End of the World failed to materialise, Miller said he’d made a mistake in calculating the Biblical prophecy and set a new date: October 22, 1844. On that day, as many as 100,000 followers gathered in makeshift temples and on hillsides to “meet the bridegroom”. When midnight came and Christ had not returned, people grew restless, and some walked out.
Of course, most of the thousands of Millerites left the movement. Some, however, went back to their Bibles to find what had gone wrong. Many concluded that the prophecy predicted not that Jesus would return to earth in 1844, but that he would begin at that time a special ministry in heaven for his followers. Out of this realisation grew the modern-day Seventh-Day Adventist Church, led by ‘prophetess’ Ellen G White, among others.
When prophecy fails
Belief in predictions, anomalous events and pseudoscientific phenomena, such as the imminent end of the world, UFO attacks, angelic visitations, the belief that a full moon causes an increase in the crime rate, that constellations, planets or deities influence our fate, and so on, are common despite their repeated and celebrated failure throughout all history. However, often, a serious disconfirmation, such as when the UFOs fail to appear, leads not to the believer discarding the belief, but to believing it more strongly, and often increasing his or her spiritual devotion. Dr Robert Glick, head of the Columbia Center for Psychoanalytic Training and Research, calls belief systems “societal pain relievers”, and it might be that renewed and increased belief is like having an extra aspirin when the pain increases due to evidence of one’s foolishness.
It can be the case that contradictory evidence can even strengthen the original belief. Social psycholgist Leon Festinger and colleagues pointed out in When Prophecy Fails, that holding two contradictory beliefs leads to ‘cognitive dissonance’, a state of mind that humans find uncomfortable ...
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